Low Interest Business Loans

Regardless of the state of the economy, all entrepreneurs, either new at their trade or old hats in business, when seeking financing, tend to get caught up in haggling over the lowest possible interest rate that they can achieve.Who can blame them? Cost savings – especially while we are still experiencing recession like economic symptoms – may be the key to their business’s survival and their personal financial future.But, sometimes, merely basing a financing decision on just its cost (its interest rate in this case) alone can be even more detrimental. All business decisions should be taken in the whole – with both benefits and costs consider simultaneously – especially with business loans.Let me explain: In today’s market, any offer of a business loan – regardless of its costs – should not be taken lightly given the fact that these business transactions are hard to come by. Thinking that this interest rate is too high and that a better one will come along tomorrow may just be destructive thinking as nothing may come along tomorrow – especially in this continued sluggish economy and all lenders being overly cautious.Further, if the business owner’s decision hinges so much on the rate of the loan, then maybe a business loan is not something the business truly needs at this time or may be a decision that just spirals the business further along an unhealthy path.Example: Let’s take a simple but common business loan situation. A $100,000 loan for 5 years with monthly payments at 8% interest. This loan would require monthly payments of $2,028 for the next 60 months. Now, let’s say the interest rate was 12% instead of 8%. This would result in a monthly payment of $2,225 – nearly $200 per month higher. A significant increase – nearly 10% higher with the larger interest rate.This is what most business owners, when seeking outside capital tend to get caught up in – the lower rate means more savings for the business and thus a better decision.But, what happens if the current lender will not lower the rate from 12% to 8%? Or, if another, lower rate loan / lender does not come along? Is it still a good business decision?Looking at the cost of the loan or the interest rate is purely one sided and could potential affect the long-term viability of your business – the benefits of the loan also have to be weighed in.Let’s say that the business can take that $100,000 loan and use it to generate an additional $5,000 in new, monthly business income. Does it really matter the interest rate at this point as the nearly $200 difference in the rate is really trivial (especially over the 60 months period) compared to possibly declining the higher rate loan and getting nothing in return (losing out on the $5,000 in new revenue per month).Or, what if the business would only be able to generate $1,000 in new, extra income from the $100,000 loans? Then no matter what the interest rate (8%, 12% 50% or higher), the business should not even be considering a loan in this situation.Why do I bring this up? Simply because I have seen business after business either lose out on their future potential or fatally harm their organization over a mere one or two percent increase in a business loan rate. We are just conditioned to think that if we do not get the rate we feel we deserve – then the deal is bad for us. That can not be further from the truth. Know that these conditioning instincts we tend to have are more from the fact that competitors (those other lenders seeking our business) tell us we can do better or that we deserve better – but in end only finding out that those ploys never really work to our benefit.The lesson here is that all business decisions are more complex then we may initially think or been lead to believe. We are taught from very early in life to negotiate for the lowest costs – like zero interest car loans or buy now with “the lowest mortgage rates in decades” – either case, one would not buy a car or a house (regardless of the interest rate) if there was not a great need – a need that provides more in benefits then its costs.The same should be done with business loans. Loans are merely an asset to a business and should be treated as such. Business loan assets should be used to generate more in revenue than they cost – the more the better. If they are not being used (like any other business asset) to generate the greatest benefit that they can generate, then they should be pulled from whatever use they are currently being employed in and put into use that will generate the greater benefit. It is simply a law of business.Thus, merely focusing on only one side of a business decision – the interest rate for a business loan decision – can have an unforeseen, adverse affect on the business – creating more harm then good. The entire situation should be taken into advice before a decision is made.In fact, in the case outlined above, the interest rate can increase as high as 56% for the 60 months before the cost would outweigh the benefits – provided there were no additional costs associated with the loan.In my experience, I have always found it much easier to look at the benefits first (like the increased monthly revenue that can be generated) then search out the lowest costs options to receive those benefits. But, as stated, this is essentially opposite of what we tend to be taught in our society or in our markets (remember the zero percentage auto loans – which have the lost interest revenue built into the price). But, sometimes the best entrepreneurs think outside the box and tend to go against any conventional wisdom we may have been subject to – mostly for the benefit of others and not ourselves.Therefore, when seeking a business loan and finding yourself fighting hard for a small decrease in your interest rate – be sure to step back for a moment and look at the entire picture – as a low interest business loan may not be in the best interest of the business in all circumstances.

S&P 500 Rallies As U.S. Dollar Pulls Back Towards Weekly Lows

Key Insights
The strong pullback in the U.S. dollar provided significant support to stocks.
Treasury yields have pulled back after touching new highs, which served as an additional positive catalyst for S&P 500.
A move above 3730 will push S&P 500 towards the resistance level at 3760.
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Pfizer Rallies After Announcing A Huge Price Hike For Its COVID-19 Vaccines
S&P 500 is currently trying to settle above 3730 as traders’ appetite for risk is growing. The U.S. dollar has recently gained strong downside momentum as the BoJ intervened to stop the rally in USD/JPY. Weaker U.S. dollar is bullish for stocks as it increases profits of multinational companies and makes U.S. equities cheaper for foreign investors.

The leading oil services company Schlumberger is up by 9% after beating analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue. Schlumberger’s peers Baker Hughes and Halliburton have also enjoyed strong support today.

Vaccine makers Pfizer and Moderna gained strong upside momentum after Pfizer announced that it will raise the price of its coronavirus vaccine to $110 – $130 per shot.

Biggest losers today include Verizon and Twitter. Verizon is down by 5% despite beating analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue. Subscriber numbers missed estimates, and traders pushed the stock to multi-year lows.

Twitter stock moved towards the $50 level as the U.S. may conduct a security review of Musk’s purchase of the company.

From a big picture point of view, today’s rebound is broad, and most market segments are moving higher. Treasury yields have started to move lower after testing new highs, providing additional support to S&P 500. It looks that some traders are ready to bet that Fed will be less hawkish than previously expected.

S&P 500 Tests Resistance At 3730

S&P 500 has recently managed to get above the 20 EMA and is trying to settle above the resistance at 3730. RSI is in the moderate territory, and there is plenty of room to gain additional upside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

If S&P 500 manages to settle above 3730, it will head towards the next resistance level at 3760. A successful test of this level will push S&P 500 towards the next resistance at October highs at 3805. The 50 EMA is located in the nearby, so S&P 500 will likely face strong resistance above the 3800 level.

On the support side, the previous resistance at 3700 will likely serve as the first support level for S&P 500. In case S&P 500 declines below this level, it will move towards the next support level at 3675. A move below 3675 will push S&P 500 towards the support at 3640.

SPDN: An Inexpensive Way To Profit When The S&P 500 Falls

Summary
SPDN is not the largest or oldest way to short the S&P 500, but it’s a solid choice.
This ETF uses a variety of financial instruments to target a return opposite that of the S&P 500 Index.
SPDN’s 0.49% Expense Ratio is nearly half that of the larger, longer-tenured -1x Inverse S&P 500 ETF.
Details aside, the potential continuation of the equity bear market makes single-inverse ETFs an investment segment investor should be familiar with.
We rate SPDN a Strong Buy because we believe the risks of a continued bear market greatly outweigh the possibility of a quick return to a bull market.
Put a gear stick into R position, (Reverse).
Birdlkportfolio

By Rob Isbitts

Summary
The S&P 500 is in a bear market, and we don’t see a quick-fix. Many investors assume the only way to navigate a potentially long-term bear market is to hide in cash, day-trade or “just hang in there” while the bear takes their retirement nest egg.

The Direxion Daily S&P 500® Bear 1X ETF (NYSEARCA:SPDN) is one of a class of single-inverse ETFs that allow investors to profit from down moves in the stock market.

SPDN is an unleveraged, liquid, low-cost way to either try to hedge an equity portfolio, profit from a decline in the S&P 500, or both. We rate it a Strong Buy, given our concern about the intermediate-term outlook for the global equity market.

Strategy
SPDN keeps it simple. If the S&P 500 goes up by X%, it should go down by X%. The opposite is also expected.

Proprietary ETF Grades
Offense/Defense: Defense

Segment: Inverse Equity

Sub-Segment: Inverse S&P 500

Correlation (vs. S&P 500): Very High (inverse)

Expected Volatility (vs. S&P 500): Similar (but opposite)

Holding Analysis
SPDN does not rely on shorting individual stocks in the S&P 500. Instead, the managers typically use a combination of futures, swaps and other derivative instruments to create a portfolio that consistently aims to deliver the opposite of what the S&P 500 does.

Strengths
SPDN is a fairly “no-frills” way to do what many investors probably wished they could do during the first 9 months of 2022 and in past bear markets: find something that goes up when the “market” goes down. After all, bonds are not the answer they used to be, commodities like gold have, shall we say, lost their luster. And moving to cash creates the issue of making two correct timing decisions, when to get in and when to get out. SPDN and its single-inverse ETF brethren offer a liquid tool to use in a variety of ways, depending on what a particular investor wants to achieve.

Weaknesses
The weakness of any inverse ETF is that it does the opposite of what the market does, when the market goes up. So, even in bear markets when the broader market trend is down, sharp bear market rallies (or any rallies for that matter) in the S&P 500 will cause SPDN to drop as much as the market goes up.

Opportunities
While inverse ETFs have a reputation in some circles as nothing more than day-trading vehicles, our own experience with them is, pardon the pun, exactly the opposite! We encourage investors to try to better-understand single inverse ETFs like SPDN. While traders tend to gravitate to leveraged inverse ETFs (which actually are day-trading tools), we believe that in an extended bear market, SPDN and its ilk could be a game-saver for many portfolios.

Threats
SPDN and most other single inverse ETFs are vulnerable to a sustained rise in the price of the index it aims to deliver the inverse of. But that threat of loss in a rising market means that when an investor considers SPDN, they should also have a game plan for how and when they will deploy this unique portfolio weapon.

Proprietary Technical Ratings
Short-Term Rating (next 3 months): Strong Buy

Long-Term Rating (next 12 months): Buy

Conclusions
ETF Quality Opinion
SPDN does what it aims to do, and has done so for over 6 years now. For a while, it was largely-ignored, given the existence of a similar ETF that has been around much longer. But the more tenured SPDN has become, the more attractive it looks as an alternative.

ETF Investment Opinion

SPDN is rated Strong Buy because the S&P 500 continues to look as vulnerable to further decline. And, while the market bottomed in mid-June, rallied, then waffled since that time, our proprietary macro market indicators all point to much greater risk of a major decline from this level than a fast return to bull market glory. Thus, SPDN is at best a way to exploit and attack the bear, and at worst a hedge on an otherwise equity-laden portfolio.